马骏：2016年中国宏观经济预测（年中更新）

空空kkong · 发表于 2016-6-28 10:20:49

以下是中国人民银行研究局首席经济学家，中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长马骏及其同事刘斌、贾彦东、李建强、陈辉、蒋贤锋、王伟斌昨日在人民银行网站的工作论文栏目发表的《2016年中国宏观经济预测（年中更新）》报告。这是自2014年底以来本研究小组第四次发表中国宏观经济预测（每半年一次）。

摘要：今年年初以来，国内外经济和政策环境发生了一系列变化。从内需来看，国内积极财政政策的力度有所加大，房地产和基建投资增速加快，但民间投资仍然疲弱。从外需来看，国际组织数次下调全球经济增速预测，我国外贸增速明显低于预期，出口可能继续面临下行压力。根据国内外的新情况，我们对2016年我国宏观经济年度指标预测进行了更新。与去年12月发表的预测相比，我们维持对2016年全年GDP增速为6.8%的基准预测不变，同时将固定资产投资增速预测上调为11.0%（上调0.2个百分点），出口增速预测下调至-1.0%（下调4.1个百分点），CPI涨幅预测上调为2.4%（上调0.7个百分点）。

Abstract: Since the beginning of this year, the global and domestic economic environment has experienced a number of changes. Domestically, fiscal support for the economy has been reinforced, real estate and infrastructure investment has accelerated, but private investment has remained sluggish. Externally, major international organizations downgraded several times the growth forecasts of the global economy, suggesting renewed downward pressure on China’s export performance. Reflecting these recent developments, we revised our China macroeconomic forecasts for 2016. Compared with our published forecasts in December last year, we maintain our baseline projection of 2016 real GDP growth at 6.8%. We upgrade our forecast for fixed asset investment growth to 11.0% (by 0.2ppts), downgrade our export growth forecast to -1.0% (by 4.1ppts), and revise up our CPI inflation forecast to 2.4% (by 0.7ppts).

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