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Prior to the extension ofproduction reduction measures by Saudi Arabia and Russia, international oilperformance was relatively strong, reaching a new high for the year, with astrong tendency to break the regional pattern. From the macroeconomicperspective, if the high base effect weakens, inflation will continue to recur.Therefore, the Federal Reserve will maintain the current high interest rateenvironment for a longer time. The market will take this part of theexpectation into account. Unless there are risk events similar to the previousbanking industry, it is difficult for the short-term macro to have a bullishdirection. Based on the weakening expectation of the US economic recession andthe logic of betting on a bottom in the global manufacturing industry, themacro bearish factors have gradually subsided, and macro funds in the crude oilmarket have also begun to retreat from short positions in late June and earlyJuly, giving international oil prices an opportunity to break through upwards.
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发表于 2024-5-31 16:27:59
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