上海有色金属价格指数IMCI与宏观经济运行的实证研究

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上海有色金属价格指数IMCI与宏观经济运行的实证研究

方正中期期货有限公司 王骏 相阳

摘要：商品指数是公认的宏观参考指标和行业景气指标，上海有色金属价格指数反映了国内有色金属整体价格水平和走势。本文简要介绍了上海有色金属价格指数IMCI，并回顾2018年上半年IMCI的走势，针对IMCI和多项宏观数据进行了对比分析，实证研究上海有色金属价格指数IMCI与宏观经济运行的关系。研究结果表明，上海有色金属价格指数IMCI相对于PPI等工业价格指标有显著的优越性和先行性，对于有色行业发展趋势和有色行业盈利水平也具有较强的指向性，可以反映国内外宏观形势和金属价格趋势，为相关经济、行业政策的制定和矿业企业、家电、汽车等有色相关企业的经营决策提供研判支持。

Abstract: The commodity index is arecognized macro reference indicator and industry prosperity index. TheShanghai Nonferrous Metals Index reflects the overall price level and trend ofdomestic nonferrous metals. This paper briefly introduces the ShanghaiNonferrous Metals Price Index (IMCI) and reviews the trend of IMCI in the firsthalf of 2018. It compares and analyzes IMCI and a number of macro data, andempirically studies the relationship between the Shanghai Nonferrous MetalsPrice Index (IMCI) and macroeconomic operations. The research results show thatthe Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Price Index (IMCI) has significant advantagesand advances relative to PPI and other industrial price indicators. It also hasa strong orientation for the development trend of non-ferrous industries andthe profitability of non-ferrous industries, and can reflect the macroeconomicsituation at home and abroad. It can reflect the macroeconomic situation athome and abroad and the trend of metal prices, and provide research andjudgment support for the formulation of relevant economic and industrialpolicies and the operational decisions of mining companies, home appliances,automobiles and other non-ferrous related enterprises.

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