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Summary Regarding rebar, the blast furnace capacityutilization rate and blast furnace operating rate of steel mills have remainedhigh in the past three years. The profitability of steel mills has steadilyrebounded. The profit of long-term steel mills will maintain a neutral level.Rebar output will remain at historically high levels. The transactions of mainstream buildingmaterials traders across the country have maintained a positive growth comparedwith the previous level of transaction volume. The market is optimistic aboutterminal demand after the rainy season. Coupled with the strong support fromSuper Macro in terms of infrastructure, future demand can be expected. The overall supply and demand structure of rebaris improving. Optimistic demand is expected to have strong support for steel prices,and steel prices are optimistic. However, the current strong rainfall in EastChina and South China has curbed short-term purchases, and steel prices mayconsolidate mainly in recent days. In recent days, the consolidation may bedominated by shocks. The near-month steel contract is more optimistic than thefar-month contract, but due to the high output and the limited construction inthe north in the fourth quarter, the far-month is slightly weaker. In terms of iron ore, last week, the shipments fromAustralia and Brazil were reduced. Affected by the overhaul and maintenance ofsome iron ore berths in Australia and Brazil, shipments will continue to berestricted, and the overall delivery level of foreign mines is not as good asexpected. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate andaverage daily molten iron output have rebounded and continued to maintain highlevels. The current environmental protection has not affected the molten ironoutput, and the demand for furnace materials is still strong. The port volumehas been at a high level over the years, and the iron ore port inventory andmedium-grade fine ore inventories have remained at a low level overall. Underthe structural support of fine ore, the price of iron ore remains highlyelastic. At present, the overallsupply and demand of iron ore is tight, and it is difficult to see asubstantial increase in supply. The environmental protection productionrestrictions in Tangshan will affect the demand for charge, but it is not easyto see a sharp decline in the demand for charge from the production situationof steel mills. Therefore, it is difficult to see the price of iron ore reversein the short term. It is expected that the price of ore will fluctuate stronglyin the near future. | 
发表于 2021-3-11 09:59:48
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