On April 2, Trump announced that he would impose a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on China. Subsequently,
on April 4, China imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff on goods from the U.S., and the intensity of
countermeasures was significantly upgraded.  
Through the transmission of propane, the positive impact on PP is more significant. Currently, the
capacity of PDH accounts for more than 20% of that in the PP sector, and the profit has already been
under pressure. In the situation where it is difficult to transfer the tariff cost downstream, these plants can
only reduce losses by reducing the operating rate or suspending production, and the launch time of
subsequent new PDH production capacity is likely to be postponed. The supply and demand pattern of
PP may be improved. However, the demand side still remains bearish, and the export of plastic products
may face downward pressure.  
As for the impact on PE, it is more about the change in the pattern of import source countries. The
Middle East and South Korea may fill the share previously held by the U.S.
Bull Risks: Larger-than-expected supply cuts from U.S. retaliation (e.g., PDH shutdowns, delayed
capacity). Bear Risks: Steeper-than-expected declines in plastic exports due to U.S. tariffs.
4 月2日，特朗普宣布将对华加征34%“对等关税”。随后4月4日，中国对美商品加征34%报复性
关税，反制力度明显升级。经由丙烷传导，利多在PP上更显著。目前PDH产能在PP中占比已超20%，
且利润已经承压。在难以向下转移关税成本的情况下，这部分装置只能通过降低开工或停产方式减少亏损，
且后续PDH新产能上线时间可能会延后，PP供需格局或迎来改善。不过，需求端仍偏利空，塑料制品出
口或面临下行压力。对于PE影响更多是进口来源国格局改变，中东、韩国或填补美国份额。
多头风险：塑料制品出口减量超预期；空头风险：报复性关税下炼厂供应减量超预期。